top of page

Q4 CAPITAL GROUP LLC

Providing What You Need

Home: Welcome

Our Managed Funds

Our Funds

With offices in Connetcicut and Florida,we operate two macro based funds. We strive to achieve both short term and long term gains in the highly chaotic and volatile markets that we have seen and that lie ahead. Our research team is untiring, and has built a track record of trading results to match.

Q4 Capital Group Macro Fund

The Q4 Capital Macro Fund was launched at the beginning of 2018, restructured at the end of 2020, and was created with the vision of capitalizing on market volatility, in both direct and indirect fashion. As the Central Banks have continued to suppress interest rates and expand their balance sheets to unimagined levels, we have seen an upward trend in volatility levels, credit instability, commodity inflation and recently headline inflation.

Q4 Capital Group FX Opportunity Fund

The Q4 Capital FX Opportunity Fund was launched at the beginning of 2021 with a focus on growing currency and credit instability in the China and Hong Kong areas. Although most have not entirely noticed, China and Hong Kong have become synonymous, a subtle shift that has been unfolding for the past several years with large disruptive effects on the world economy.

Home: Services

Home: Contact

Our Trading Strategies

After years of preparatory research and experience and operating a previously highly successful fund from 2010 to 2016, our team devised a plan to trade the volatility in the markets as the asset inflation we have seen will transition to a more commodity based inflation, as we are seeing, and as the central banks led by the Federal Reserve slowly loose control of the the markets. Flexibility and adaptability have been a large reason for our success, and will continue to be.

Order and Chaos

We have all heard of "peak oil", however the greater systemic risk is "peak debt". We all try to convince ourselves that the order of the day is normal. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average having seen the longest bull market in history, with the average trading as high as the 36,000 level, we try to convince ourselves that there has been a strong recovery at work, and that the housing crisis of 2007 and 2008 was a once in a lifetime economic crisis. However, a very different conclusion is reached when we look deeper into the events of not just the past several years, but the past 3 or 4 decades. We have watched, with our eyes wide shut, as our domestic and international economy has become dependent on more and more rapid credit expansion, relying not on economic activity, but on creating asset inflation with ever greater monetary intervention. Without the massive "quantitative easing", or QE, programs of the US FED, the ECB, the BOJ, the PBOC and other central banks, we would be mired in a prolonged economic depression of greater magnitude that the Great Depression of the 1930s. The aggregate credit markets as a percentage of GDP, both in the US and internationally, stand at well over 400%. This is a far higher print that in the years immediately preceding the Great Depression or any other time in US history. Central Banks, in an effort to avoid such a repeat, have turned our economic system into a bubble economy, with little organic economic growth seen since the 1990s. NOW, this is NOT the end of the world, and we don't believe it is. However, each bubble has been bigger than the last, and each crisis that follows has been worse than the last. We have seen the Dot Com bubble of the late 1990s, followed by the crisis that followed. We saw the Housing Bubble of the 2000s, and the crisis that followed. We have seen the QE Central Bank bubble of recent years. We are once again in an even bigger bubble. A debt black hole is forming. We organized to profit on our short term trading operation as the bubble grew, topped, and further from this upcoming crisis as it unfolds in the years ahead.

Synchronized QE

Nothing has impacted the markets more, since the 2008 housing crisis, than the massive influx of US Dollars, Japanese Yen, Euros, Canadian Dollars, Chinese Yuan and Swiss Francs. This massive monetary stimulus, reflected in the massive increases in the Balance Sheets of the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, the Bank of Canada, the PBOC and the SNB. As the housing crisis set in, globally and domestically aggregate credit markets had reached well over 300% of GDP. Our global economy can ONLY grow with aggregate credit growth. The central banks became the credit buyers of "last resort", as they have stuffed sovereign debt and corporate debt onto the their bloated balance sheets. The US Federal Reserve tapered its balance sheet in 2015, and began symbolic increases in short term lending rates, only to put it on hold again as the markets stumbled in late 2018. The FED lost its will to pursue it's repeated goal of "normalizing" interest rates in early 2019, allowing the markets to rebound. The FED also recently began injecting large amounts of liquidity into the banking system again to tame an overnight lending market crisis that developed in late 2019. This is an unprecedented course of action given the continuous assurances that economy is a a "pretty good place". Next, the "corona virus" era arrived, laying the foundation for what the Federal Reserve was going to end up doing no matter the reason, continue expanding its balance sheet to nearly $8 trillion now. The BOJ, ECB and BOE have followed suit, as expected.

The Biggest Financial Bubble in History

This massive central bank infusion has created the largest asset bubble ever, and all assets are correlated, not too mention a bubble in central banker hubris. How will this end? In our opinion, the meltdown that will follow the recent melt up will be like no other. SINCE ALL ASSETS ROSE IN TANDEM, creating bubbles in stock markets, real estate markets and bond markets, they will all fall together. The notion that there are safe places to hide in the financial asset markets is misguided, other than in real assets like commodities as the monetary supply globally continues to surge. Central bankers have been forced to "taper" and raise rates so that they have tools to combat the coming crisis. As we have indicated, there is typically an alternate event is offered to divert attention away from central bank error, like housing and health panics. The size and scope of this current bubble makes the housing bubble and dot-com bubble seem rather insignificant. And to be certain, the crisis that follows will be larger as well. The further they rise, the harder they fall. In addition, due to the ever larger presence of high frequency trading, or computer based trading, the speed of the decline will likely be terrifying. We are not trying to sell a negative story line, we are basing our predictions on ever obvious correlation and extensive computer modeling. The blow off rally playing out in Equity Markets will run its course, and a top will form. The events beginning to play out in the credit markets are a warning of the events to come.

Market Effects

In early February 2018 and again in late 2018, the global equity markets entered into a steep correction. While clearly this action is a result of the waning effects of the Synchronized QE programs of the past 8 to 10 years, news headlines have focused more on the "Volatility" mean reversion, after years of Volatility Suppression and “trade wars”. What is missed in the analysis by many is the fact the interest rate suppression, via Synchronized QE, resulted in Volatility Suppression and widespread participation in the trades and ETFs benefiting from the Volatility Suppression. This initial decline played itself out, and was followed by a strong rebound in global equity markets, as we have saw in 2019, followed by the 2020 corona collapse and sharp recovery. This rally appears very strong, but will fail just like the last several, as the next proverbial shoe drops.

bottom of page